What Home Buyers Need to Know for December 16, 2013
Last week was relatively calm in the world of scheduled housing-related news. Last Monday the Federal Reserve released its financial accounts report indicated that mortgage debt in the U.S. had increased for the first time since the first quarter (Q1) of 2008. Mortgage debt increased by a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of $87.4 billion, or 0.90 percent, however mortgage debt remains approximately 12.00 percent below pre-recession levels. Increasing debt is not often considered good news, but in the case of mortgage debt and today’s economy it suggests economic recovery in the form of higher home prices and fewer foreclosures.
Another instance of counter-intuitive economic results was released Tuesday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for October. JOLTS indicated that 2.39 million workers quit their jobs in October. This was the highest number of job quits since 2008. While this may appear counter-productive to a growing economy, it indicates that workers are leaving their jobs for better positions.
On Wednesday the U.S. Treasury announced that November’s federal budget deficit had shrunk to -$135 billion from November 2012′s deficit reading of -$172 billion. This represents a year-over-year deficit decrease of 21 percent.
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) report provided good news as average mortgage rates fell last week. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell from 4.46 percent to 4.42 percent. Discount points rose from the previous week’s reading of 0.50 percent to 0.70 percent. 15-year fixed rate mortgage rates fell from 3.47 percent to an average reading of 3.43 percent, with discount points rising from the prior week’s reading of 0.40 percent to 0.70 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage dropped from 2.99 percent to 2.94 percent with discount points unchanged at 0.40 percent. Lower mortgage rates are good news for home buyers facing higher home prices.
Weekly jobless claims rose last week. The previous week’s reading of 300,000 new jobless claims was short-lived as the reading for new jobless claims rose to 368,000 last week and surpassed a consensus of 335,000 new jobless claims. Financial analysts cautioned that employment data can be volatile during the holidays, and noted that the four-week average of new unemployment claims rose by 6000 to 328,750.
What‘s Ahead for the Week?
There are few significant releases set for housing-related news the week. The NAHB Housing Market Index is scheduled for release this week and gives us data on housing starts and building permits. It also gives us an indication on how current builder confidence is and what direction new construction is going.
Wednesday, the FOMC will issue its usual statement at the conclusion of its two-day meeting. Some analysts expect an announcement concerning the Fed’s quantitative easing policy; Outgoing Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is set to give a press conference after the FOMC statement.
Finally later in the week we will get our weekly jobless claims report and Freddie Mac’s PMMS.